Donald Trump’s disastrous Iran war is bombing Thailand’s tourism industry with skyrocketing airfares, canceled flights and fuel shortages causing carnage across the kingdom.
Entering its fourth week, the U.S. and Israel’s Iran debacle has seen ticket prices surge with jet fuel costs, flights between Europe and Asia are being diverted around expanding conflict zones and diesel shortages are already appearing across parts of Thailand, affecting farmers, truckers and even Buddhist funeral rites.
The combined impact of the Iran war is hitting Thailand’s travel economy just weeks before Songkran and raising concerns about whether the conflict could push fuel prices and transport disruptions even higher.
Since the Iran conflict began, more than 37,000 flights in the Middle East region have been cancelled. For Thailand alone, around 134 flights have been affected, including 59 cancellations on routes linking Thailand and Middle Eastern hubs.
The effect is already visible in visitor arrivals. From March 1–9, Thailand recorded 741,063 foreign tourists, down 5.69% from the same period last year. Long-haul markets — Europe, the United States, the Middle East and Africa — saw the sharpest drop, falling nearly 14%.
European arrivals fell by more than 41,000 visitors during the period, while arrivals from the Middle East plunged by more than 76%.
Higher Airfares Begin to Hit Travelers
The most immediate effect of the Iran debacle for travelers is the rising cost of airline tickets.
Thai Airways International says jet fuel prices have surged from about $80 per barrel before the Iran war to around $220, more than doubling in just weeks. In a worst-case scenario, the price could climb to $240 if the conflict continues through May.
To stay afloat, the national carrier has already raised average ticket prices by 10%-15%. Chief executive Chai Eamsiri told the media that the increase reflects operating costs rather than opportunistic pricing.
“Without raising fares, the organization cannot continue,” he said.
The rising costs are already affecting demand. Advance bookings for Songkran travel next month are weaker than last year, particularly among long-haul passengers flying between Thailand and Europe or Australia.
Instead of canceling trips outright, many travelers are delaying decisions while waiting to see whether the Iran conflict stabilizes and fares fall.
Tourism officials say the conflict’s biggest risk is not Middle Eastern visitors themselves but the long-haul markets that rely on Gulf transit hubs.
European tourists alone account for about eight million visitors to Thailand each year, and roughly one-third of them typically connect through Middle Eastern airlines or airspace.
Thai Airways has also started limiting the number of discounted tickets through dynamic pricing and is preparing to request approval from regulators to increase fuel surcharges if the crisis continues.
Flight Disruptions and Longer Travel Routes
The Iran war has also disrupted the flight corridors that normally connect Europe and Asia.
Large sections of airspace across Iran, Iraq and surrounding areas have been closed to commercial aviation, forcing airlines to reroute flights through narrower and more crowded corridors.
Flights between Europe and Thailand now rely on limited paths through Turkey and the Caucasus or south through Saudi Arabia and Egypt. These routes are longer and more complex, increasing fuel consumption and operating costs.
The additional flying time is pushing ticket prices higher while complicating airline scheduling, especially on long-haul routes linking Bangkok with European cities.
Airlines are also facing logistical challenges as the Iran conflict reshapes global aviation routes already strained by earlier restrictions on Russian airspace.
Fuel Shortages Begin to Spread Across Thailand
While airlines deal with rising costs, fuel shortages are already appearing on the ground across Thailand.
In Phrae province, many petrol stations have run out of diesel entirely, leaving motorists and truck drivers waiting in long queues only to be told supplies had run out before their turn.
In Chiang Mai, about 10,000 liters of diesel delivered to a PTT station on the Superhighway triggered long lines of pickups, vans and tour buses. Many drivers waited more than 30 minutes only to be turned away when the station ran dry.
Another station in Mae Rim district received only 8,000 liters of diesel, which sold out within four hours.
Rationing has also begun in some provinces due to Trump’s Iran folly. In Nakhon Ratchasima, several petrol stations limited diesel purchases for trucks and pickups to 1,500 baht each to stretch supplies.
Some drivers have resorted to buying more expensive premium diesel simply to avoid leaving empty-handed.
Tourism Industry Bracing for Larger Impact
Thailand’s tourism authorities are now modeling how prolonged Iran war could reshape the country’s visitor numbers this year.
Officials say the direct loss of Middle Eastern tourists is relatively small because the region accounts for only about 2% of Thailand’s annual arrivals. The bigger concern is the knock-on effect on long-haul travel from Europe and North America.
Government projections outline several possible scenarios depending on how long the disruption lasts.
- If the conflict stabilizes within three weeks, Thailand could lose about 210,000 visitors, mostly from Europe and the Middle East.
- If airspace closures last about a month, the loss could reach more than 334,000 tourists.
- In the worst-case scenario — if disruptions drag on for two months or more — Thailand could lose nearly 600,000 visitors and more than 40 billion baht in tourism revenue.
Tourism officials say airlines may need to revise long-haul schedules for the upcoming summer travel season if flight Iran war disruptions persist, potentially pushing fares higher across multiple markets.
At the same time, authorities are shifting strategy toward replacement markets such as China, India, Japan and regional Asian destinations, which rely on shorter flight routes and are less exposed to Iran war airspace disruptions.
